Posted by: ctraderd | November 28, 2012

EXEL News Coming Soon

EXEL has a PDUFA on Thursday for their drug Cabozantinib. This version of the drug will be for the treatment of Medullary Thyroid cancer (MTC). If EXEL’s drug really does help the patient get better, it will be an extraordinary breakthrough. So far in the Phase III tests, it has only been revealed that Cabozantinib increases progression- free survival.

“During its phase III trial, Cabozantinib increased median progression-free survival from 4.0 months in the placebo group to 11.2 months. The estimated progression-free survival at one year was 47.3% for Cabozantinib, contrasted to 7.2% for the placebo. Concurrent with treatment, patients experienced many adverse events, including severe hypertension and diarrhea, palmar-plantar erythrodysesthesia, and weight loss. However, these types of adverse events are expected given Cabozantinib’s mode of action and purpose.” (Source: http://bit.ly/10Hgygp)

EXEL’s stock is currently trading at $5.32 as of 09:07:32 New York time. If EXEL gains approval of Cabozantinib, it will be the corporations first FDA approved drug. This will probably send the stock into a run up in premarket at least. If the bears start to gain volume, it could drive the stock back under $5 per share and potentially all the way down to $2 per share. I have seen this happen with many other stocks that gain FDA approval, which is the primary reason that I will most likely not hold through the news.

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Responses

  1. You say it could reach $2??Can you give your rationale as to how EXEL would lose ~$500 M in market cap, and see its share price drop over 50% after an approval…its 52 week low is $4.02 by the way

    • My rationale is that $HZNP got their drug approved when the company was at $8. The 52-week low was $3.50. Now $HZNP is trading for around $2.50 per share. I’ve seen stocks do it before is my rationale.


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